Thinking about a short-term rental in South Florida but not sure how the numbers stack up in Tampa versus Miami or Fort Lauderdale? You are not alone. Returns depend on more than nightly rates. Rules, taxes, seasonality, and operating costs can shift a pro forma fast. In this guide, you will see the essential inputs, conservative baselines, and compliance checkpoints to make a clean, apples-to-apples comparison. Let’s dive in.
Build your STR pro forma right
A solid pro forma starts with simple math: Gross revenue = ADR × Nights available × Occupancy. Many investors model 330 to 350 nights to allow for maintenance and owner use. Add ancillary revenue only if it is material.
From gross revenue, deduct platform fees, cleaning and turnover costs, management, utilities, insurance, property taxes, HOA dues, maintenance, and a capital reserve. Keep financing costs below NOI so cash flow and cash-on-cash are clear. Build three scenarios so you can see sensitivity.
Key outputs to compare
- Gross revenue and seasonality profile
- Net operating income (NOI)
- Debt service and cash flow before tax
- Cash-on-cash return
- Sensitivity to ADR and occupancy changes
Revenue assumptions by market
These are conservative starting points. Replace with neighborhood-level data before you invest.
Tampa (Hillsborough County)
- ADR: $150 to $200
- Occupancy: 45% to 60% on market averages, higher in peak winter and event months
- Notes: Growing supply in some suburbs has pressured occupancy. Start with conservative inputs and verify submarket trends.
Miami
- ADR: $220 to $400+ in desirable areas
- Occupancy: 45% to 75% depending on location and season
- Notes: Premium ADR potential, higher acquisition and operating costs, and tighter rules in certain zones. Miami Beach has notable restrictions on short stays.
Fort Lauderdale
- ADR: $180 to $260
- Occupancy: 50% to 70%, with beachfront and marina areas at the top end
- Notes: Established city registration and inspection program. Performance varies by proximity to water and amenities.
Regulatory, licensing, and tax checkpoints
Regulations can change your revenue, costs, and calendar. Confirm eligibility and requirements before you model returns.
- State licensing: Florida requires a DBPR vacation rental license for properties rented more than three times per year for under 30 days. Review the DBPR guide and verify license status in the state database. State vacation rental licensing guide
- County bed tax: Most counties levy a Tourist Development Tax on short stays in addition to state sales tax. Hillsborough County’s TDT is 6%. Broward County levies a similar TDT. Hillsborough County TDT rules | Broward County TDT FAQs
- City registration and zoning:
- Miami: Certificate of Use, DBPR license, Business Tax Receipt, plus zoning limitations that restrict where whole-home STRs are allowed. City of Miami procedures
- Fort Lauderdale: Mandatory registration, inspections, and operating standards with potential fines for violations. Fort Lauderdale vacation rental program
- Miami Beach: Many residential areas prohibit rentals under 6 months. Always confirm the address. Miami Beach short-term rental info
- Miami-Dade County: County-specific compliance and neighborhood rules may apply. Miami-Dade short-term rental rules
- Platform tax collection: Some platforms collect and remit certain taxes for Florida bookings, but you remain responsible for full compliance. Verify what is collected by county and platform. Airbnb tax collection overview
Tax note: Florida state sales tax is 6% on short stays. Add the county TDT on top. Filing schedules and penalties vary by county.
Operating costs that move the needle
Use vendor quotes for accuracy and keep assumptions conservative, especially along the coast.
- Platform fees: 2% to 4% of booking when host-paid
- Management: 15% to 30% of gross STR revenue depending on services
- Cleaning and turnover: $60 to $250 per stay based on size and labor
- Utilities: $200 to $800 per month, more with pools or heavy AC use
- Insurance: Expect higher premiums along Miami and coastal Broward compared with inland Tampa; model 10% to 40% higher for waterfront exposure and rising Florida premiums. Florida insurance affordability context
- Maintenance and reserve: 5% to 10% of revenue for repairs and replacements
- HOA/condo fees: Confirm rental rules and any minimum stay limits before underwriting
Simple sensitivity test
Stress test your base case so you see how returns change.
- Base: Neighborhood ADR and occupancy averages, 330 to 350 nights available
- Downside: ADR minus 15% and occupancy minus 10 percentage points; include a scenario where rules require 30+ day minimums for part of the year
- Upside: ADR plus 10% to 20% and occupancy plus 5 to 10 percentage points for superior design, location, or operations
Risks to underwrite by location
- Regulatory change: Cities update rules, add inspections, or raise penalties. Model compliance costs and a possible shift to monthly rentals.
- Supply growth: Tampa Bay has seen rapid listing growth in some areas, which can depress occupancy and ADR. Tampa Bay supply growth snapshot
- Weather and insurance: Coastal Miami and Broward face higher wind and flood exposure. Budget higher premiums and reserves, and confirm insurability early. Insurance pressure overview
- HOA and condo rules: Many associations ban short stays or set minimums. Always confirm covenants in writing before you buy.
What this means for Tampa buyers
Tampa often offers lower purchase prices compared with Miami metro, steady event and winter demand, and simpler city-level registration in many neighborhoods. That combination can make underwriting more predictable, especially if you keep ADR and occupancy conservative and confirm county and state compliance.
Miami and Fort Lauderdale can deliver higher ADR but typically come with stricter city rules, higher insurance, and greater seasonality by submarket. Your pro forma should weigh those tradeoffs clearly.
Next step: build a market-ready pro forma
- Confirm legal eligibility and registration steps for the exact address.
- Pull neighborhood ADR and occupancy from a paid data source and map monthly seasonality.
- Get local quotes for management, cleaning, and insurance. Then build base, downside, and upside cases.
If you want a disciplined, investor‑grade view and hands-on operating help in South Florida, connect with Ryan Brant. We source, underwrite, operate, and manage with a single point of accountability.
FAQs
What is a short-term rental pro forma and why does it matter?
- A pro forma forecasts revenue, expenses, and cash flow for your rental. It helps you compare markets, stress test returns, and avoid surprises before you buy.
What taxes apply to STRs in Tampa, Miami, and Fort Lauderdale?
- Florida charges 6% state sales tax on short stays. Counties add a Tourist Development Tax, such as 6% in Hillsborough and similar in Broward. Filing and penalties vary by county.
Do I need a Florida license to operate a vacation rental?
- Yes. Most short stays require a DBPR vacation rental license, plus any county and city registrations. Always verify the property’s eligibility with the state and city.
Can I run a short-term rental in Miami Beach?
- Many residential areas in Miami Beach prohibit rentals under 6 months. Confirm the address against the city’s rules before you underwrite or advertise.
What are reasonable starting inputs for Tampa?
- A conservative baseline is ADR of $150 to $200 and occupancy of 45% to 60%, adjusted by neighborhood and season. Replace with current, local data before investing.
How much should I budget for management and cleaning?
- Full-service STR management often ranges from 15% to 30% of gross revenue. Cleaning typically runs $60 to $250 per turnover depending on size and services.
How do hurricanes and insurance affect returns in South Florida?
- Insurance and storm risk can raise operating costs, especially near the coast. Get quotes early, keep a higher reserve, and stress test premiums and downtime in your scenarios.
